Pick 'Em Preview: Another great Cocktail PartyBy Will Harris College Pick 'Em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every week to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'Em page on Tuesdays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews.
Nebraska at Texas (10 points)
Nebraska has been blown out three straight games. The warning signs were there on defense earlier in the year, but even as soundly as the Huskers were whipped at Missouri, there was no reason to think they would quit on the season the way they have the past two games. One letdown against Oklahoma State after the devastating Missouri loss was understandable, but last week was the time for this team to make a stand and show some pride, especially the maligned defense, whose leaders attempted to motivate the unit by surrendering their famed "Blackshirts." The entire defense followed suit, but the team still looked like quitters in another blowout loss, this time at home against Texas A&M. The Huskers hit the road for Austin now, and while Texas could easily make the mistake of taking this game for granted, this Nebraska squad has offered no hope that such overconfidence would be punished. This team reminds me of the John L. Smith-coached Michigan State team that folded the tent in the second half last season. Nebraska is a demoralized team with a lame-duck coach, and while this squad is still theoretically potent offensively, tackling depends on desire to a large degree, and this group won't beat anyone while allowing the 5-yards-per-carry average it's allowed so far. The Longhorns are an improving team with a great run defense and a balanced attack that makes use of a wide array of weapons. On paper, this is a mismatch. Texas is a big-name opponent, which might get the Huskers fired up. But even if the visitors turn in a good start, expect them to fold in the second half once the Longhorns take command. Texas, 41-20
California at Arizona State (9 points)
Yes, the Sun Devils are among the most undisciplined teams in football. Sure, they've lost star tailback Ryan Torain for the year and continue to have issues with pass protection. But this is also a team that boasts an attack that can move the ball by land or air, allows fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and ranks seventh in the NCAA in pass efficiency defense. California is ill-equipped to take advantage of the Sun Devils' weaknesses, and the Bears don't match up well against their opponent's strengths. The biggest factor, however, is that this is the biggest game Arizona State has played in more than a decade, and while the host has had a bye week to prepare, the visiting Bears are coming off two heartbreaking losses that have robbed the team of its chance to reach any of its goals this season. Cal profiles as a team that's going in the tank for the rest of the year, and the Bears are catching a very good ASU squad at the wrong time. Arizona State, 45-13
West Virginia at Rutgers (8 points)
The Mountaineers' triple-overtime victory last year -- achieved without quarterback Pat White -- was a game neither side is likely to have forgotten. Rutgers is better equipped than most teams to handle West Virginia's potent rushing attack, but the Neers get their yards even against quality defensive fronts. The key to this Big East clash is West Virginia's run defense, not Rutgers', though. The Mountaineers are allowing only 2.6 yards per carry and fewer than 90 yards per game. Ray Rice is going to find it tough sledding, and even with an improved receiving corps to look for, quarterback Mike Teel isn't going to be able to make as many plays as Pat White. The Knights were outgained by common opponents South Florida and Maryland despite hosting both games, while West Virginia outgained those squads by 342 yards on their home fields. The Mountaineers are easily the better team here, and still a player in the national title race. West Virginia, 34-17
Michigan State at Iowa (7 points)
The Spartans' best-in-the-conference offense was shut down last week in the Horseshoe. Now they face an Iowa team that's had few bright spots this year but does boast what might be the league's best defensive line. The Spartans can attain bowl eligibility with a victory, but the host isn't necessarily ready to quit. With a soft November slate of Northwestern, Minnesota and Western Michigan, the Hawkeyes are still in position to reach the postseason. Motivation might not be enough here, however. While the Hawkeyes' defense can keep Michigan State's balanced onslaught under wraps for a while, the offense is a different story. Ninth-year offensive coordinator Ken O'Keefe isn't fooling anybody with his vanilla schemes and probably will be made the sacrificial lamb for the 2007 season's failures. Iowa simply can't score, and while the Spartans' defense isn't Ohio State's, it's plenty good enough to stop a team like Iowa. The Hawkeyes' defense has demonstrated that it can win games by itself at times (see: Illinois), but the offense won't be able to move the chains enough even to keep the defense rested. The rushing tandem of Javon Ringer and the bruising Jehuu Caulcrick will eventually wear down the Iowa front seven, and the result will be similar to Iowa's games against Wisconsin and Penn State, in which the defense held up for a while, but the offense was so bad that the defense eventually wilted. Michigan State, 28-14
Kansas at Texas A&M (6 points)
Like Connecticut, it's hard to get a read on Kansas because the team has played such a soft schedule. The Jayhawks' statistics suggest the team has dominated every phase of the game, but the team has played only three games against BCS schools. Tossing out the rout over a bad Baylor squad, there are two themes from the games against Kansas State and Colorado. First, Kansas was especially impressive stopping the run. Neither the Wildcats nor the Buffs found any room whatsoever on the ground. Colorado and Kansas State aren't Texas A&M when it comes to running the ball, but they're no slouches, either. The performance legitimizes the Jayhawks' run defense and gives Kansas great hope this weekend against the one-dimensional Aggies. The second theme was Jake Sharp and the ground attack's ability to find room to run. The A&M run defense is in the same class as the two previous opponents, and Kansas should be confident in its prospects to move the ball. The Aggies are a tough team to figure, as they were dominant last week in Lincoln despite all the turmoil surrounding coach Dennis Franchione. If that was the "circle-the-wagons" game for A&M, the Aggies could be in trouble. As the first test against an opponent that gets any national respect, this is the game the Jayhawks have been pointing toward, especially since a last-minute loss to A&M last year wound up costing the team a bowl berth. The Jayhawks should control the trenches, and the excellent secondary will be able to stop the weak A&M passing game if the Aggies have to play from behind. Kansas 31-20
Ohio State at Penn State (5 points)
Two top defenses square off in Happy Valley, an unkind venue for the Buckeyes over the years. Both teams will look to run first on offense and stop the run first on defense, and the defenses should come out on top in that struggle. The Buckeyes allow 66 yards per game and 2.2 yards per rush, while the Lions allow 80 and 2.3. Ohio State quarterback Todd Boeckman made a couple of key fumbles while under heavy pressure for the first time last week, and the Lions will put some heat on him Saturday. Boeckman, however, has made fewer mistakes and has been more reliable than PSU counterpart Anthony Morelli. Morelli's inability to get the ball in the hands of the league's fastest receiving corps has been the downfall of the Penn State offense this year, and this is not the opponent against which these issues will be repaired. This should be an outstanding game pitting two well-coached and motivated teams. The Buckeyes will get in some play-action blows against Penn State's man coverage, and in the end it will be Morelli's inability to hit big plays and avoid mistakes that will make the difference. Boeckman won't be a playmaker, either, but he'll make better decisions than Morelli. Ohio State, 17-12
USC at Oregon (4 points)
The Trojans are not as good as last year's edition, and this is a team that's likely to let its bubble-bursting loss to Stanford linger all year. This game, however, is likely to motivate USC as much as Oregon, as the Trojans will look to deliver one more statement performance and reassert themselves as the team to beat in the Pac-10. Oregon's offense, led by Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon, is hitting on all cylinders and then some, but the unit has suffered some key injuries recently and has not faced a defense like USC's. Look for the Trojans to take advantage of the Ducks' poor run defense, taking the game out of the hands of the struggling passing game and keeping Dixon on the sideline. Oregon will gain its share of yards, but USC's defense is so much faster and more physical than any team it has faced; even this offense will struggle to adjust. When it comes to making those adjustments, Ducks fans have to be worried. Mike Bellotti is an outstanding football coach, but game adjustments and situational strategy are among his weaknesses. Bellotti has constantly been "outcoached" by the likes of Jeff Tedford, and should be an easy mark for Pete Carroll, one of the sport's best in-game tacticians. USC will get up for this game more than any other this year, and while Autzen Stadium is a tough place to play and the Ducks are an outstanding team, the better defense will prevail if supported by a running game that can limit Oregon's possessions. USC, 24-20
South Florida at Connecticut (3 points)
This is a game with many subplots. Will Connecticut be able to maintain its level of play after an intense week of practice led to a hard-fought, dramatic victory over Louisville last Saturday? Will South Florida's loss to Rutgers-- the team's first in nine games -- have an adverse effect on its play Saturday? What about the brutal travel schedule that called for the team to play last Thursday in New Jersey, return to Tampa for a week, then hit the road again for Connecticut? Oh, and don't forget the weather. The forecast calls for cold (advantage Huskies?) and rain. Whichever team can summon the most motivational mojo will win this defensive struggle. Neither stop unit is allowing more than 300 yards per game or three yards per rush. George Selvie and the Bulls' pass rush will be the difference. USF, 13-9
Georgia at Florida (2 points)
Tim Tebow has been anointed the Heisman front-runner for now, but while his quarterback play has indeed been solid, the Gators still have lots of work to do if the team hopes to keep a "2" in that loss column. Florida's secondary is leaking badly, and the passing game has been consistent but not explosive. The Gators need more from a receiving corps that's just starting to get healthy, and they need to cut down on the 82 penalty yards per game in SEC play. Georgia is a well-coached team that's had a bye week to prepare for the "Cocktail Party." The Bulldogs don't do anything superbly besides punt but have a balanced team with solid personnel everywhere and no glaring weaknesses either. Florida has won 15 of 17 in this series, but the games are usually close, with the past five contests being decided by a touchdown or less. This Gators team lacks the dominant defense and senior leadership of last year's crew and will struggle against a rested, motivated foe. Georgia, 24-23
South Carolina at Tennessee (1 point)
Like the Cocktail Party, this is an elimination game in the SEC East race. With five teams sporting two defeats, it's unlikely that a three-loss team can find its way to Atlanta for the SEC championship. That should help these two recover from stinging defeats suffered last week. This is a classic battle between good offense and good defense. The Vols' Erik Ainge is second only to Kentucky's Andre' Woodson in most SEC passing categories, and the Tennessee rushing attack has improved greatly in recent weeks. Carolina has a balanced attack as well, but it's only marginally effective both running and passing. On the other side of the ball, the advantages all belong to the visitor. The Gamecocks boast the league's best pass defense but are somewhat vulnerable against the run, while Tennessee's stop unit has struggled to contain opposing runners and receivers. Neither team has shown much of a pass rush, so this should play out as a higher-scoring affair than most Gamecocks games. Two highly motivated and evenly matched teams make for a good game. I'll say that Steve Spurrier's career-long Jedi mind-lock on Phil Fulmer is worth more than the home field. South Carolina, 30-27
Check out our full preview of the weekend ahead! College Pick 'Em: Week 9 Will Harris is a fantasy baseball and college football analyst for ESPN.com. |
Prizes
Play College Pick'em for your chance to win a trip for two to the Outback Bowl or a bowl game of your choice!
*excluding national championship game
TOTAL ARV is $4,000



